Space & Launch Trader

This is a template.
The default signal is keyword discovery + FAA/SpaceX launch schedule alignment — remix it with NASA launch manifest APIs, TLE (Two-Line Element) satellite tracking data, or social media sentiment from SpaceX/Blue Origin announcements.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Space prediction markets have shown $120M+ cumulative volume (2020–2025) with 22% CAGR. Polymarket currently lists 106+ active space markets. This skill trades:

• SpaceX milestones — Starship orbital tests, launch counts, Starlink constellation size
• Mars missions — NASA/private mission announcements and landing events
• Commercial spaceflight — Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Axiom Space timelines
• Satellite & telecom — Orbital congestion, direct-to-cell launch milestones
• Regulatory events — FAA approvals, international launch cadence comparisons

Key insight: volatility spikes ~25% around launch events, creating short-window entry opportunities for informed traders.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Operator Reliability Bias

1. Discover active space/launch markets on Polymarket
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply mission_bias() multiplier based on operator track record in the question
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution

Mission Bias (built-in, no API required)

Retail traders apply uniform skepticism across all space markets, ignoring the vast difference in historical reliability between operators. mission_bias() encodes documented success rates directly into position sizing:

Example: Falcon 9 launch success market at 25% → conviction 34% × 1.35x = 46% → $14 position. NASA SLS timeline market at same price → 34% × 0.80x = 27% → $8.

Remix Ideas

• FAA NOTAM filings: Public Notice to Air Missions filed days ahead of launch — feed scheduled probability into p to trade divergence with market
• Next Spaceflight / Rocket Watch: Public launch calendars as leading probability signal
• NASA API: Real-time mission status and telemetry feeds
• Satellite TLE data: Verify actual Starlink constellation count vs market claims before milestone markets resolve

Market Categories Tracked

KEYWORDS = [
    'SpaceX', 'Starship', 'Starlink', 'Falcon 9', 'Crew Dragon',
    'launch', 'rocket', 'Mars', 'Moon', 'lunar',
    'NASA', 'Artemis', 'SLS', 'Blue Origin', 'New Glenn',
    'Virgin Galactic', 'Axiom', 'satellite', 'orbital', 'ISS',
    'FAA', 'launch window', 'ESA', 'JAXA',
]

Risk Parameters

Volatility Note

Space markets spike sharply on anomaly news. If a launch is scrubbed, NO prices spike immediately. The skill detects these via context flip-flop warnings and pauses during high-volatility windows unless edge is strong.

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-space-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 10 minutes (*/10 * * * *). Launch events can resolve rapidly; tighter loop than other categories.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.